The hottest Shanghai zinc futures price will be un

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Shanghai zinc futures will be under pressure in the medium term

after two trading days of adjustment, Shanghai zinc futures rose again on September 18, with the main 1811 contract up 2.41%, leading the rise in non-ferrous metals. Analysts said that the release of macro risks, the record low zinc output and the market's expectation of a pick-up in domestic infrastructure all supported the sharp rise in Shanghai zinc futures prices. However, considering that the global supply of zinc concentrate will increase in the future and the domestic consumption expectation is pessimistic, the center of gravity of zinc price may gradually sink in the medium term

futures prices rebounded sharply

on Tuesday, Shanghai zinc futures opened low and went high. The main 1811 contract was as high as 21055 yuan/ton, closing at 21045 yuan/ton, up 495 yuan or 2.41%

Meierya futures analyst Wang Yanhong said that the release of macro risks and the record low output of zinc supported the sharp rise of Shanghai zinc futures price yesterday

according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, China's zinc production in August decreased by 7.9% year-on-year to 431000 tons, falling to the low point since October 2012; The total monthly output was 3.695 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%

"the strengthening of Shanghai zinc futures price yesterday may be related to the market's expectation of a rebound in domestic infrastructure." Li Jun, a researcher at Guangzhou futures, said that many infrastructure projects started intensively in the second half of the year. From the demand side, the demand of zinc market may pick up to a certain extent, and it is currently in the peak season of traditional consumption, and the price of zinc will be boosted. In terms of supply, the increasingly stringent environmental requirements have limited the start-up of many small mines in China. Pan Xuezhu said that the domestic supply of zinc concentrate has not increased significantly. The current processing fee of zinc concentrate makes the profit of the refined zinc smelter become meager, and the smelter is not willing to start work, which also makes the supply of refined zinc lower than that of the same period last year

in terms of inventory, as of September 17, the inventory of zinc futures in the previous period was 6836 tons, the lowest level in recent six years; LME zinc inventory was 215975 tons, also at the low level in recent six years

the rising space may be limited

"at present, the price level of Lun zinc will also be profitable for many of the plate springs in S60, S90, V60, V90 and XC60 overseas zinc mines, inducing many zinc miners to start zinc mining in succession. Century zinc mine and Dugar River zinc mine have gradually resumed work, and the tight supply situation in the global zinc market is gradually alleviating." Li Jun said

the international lead-zinc special oil pump fully meets the requirements of the aircraft's long-term fatigue test. The report released by the research group (ILZSG) on Monday showed that the global zinc market was in short supply of 42000 tons in 2018, compared with 253000 tons in the same period last year

Wang Yanhong said that since September, although the processing fees of zinc ores at home and abroad have increased to varying degrees, which has repaired the refinery profits, the improvement range is still relatively limited. Compared with mines, the bargaining power of refineries is still at a relative disadvantage in the short term. In the absence of a significant recovery in consumption, refineries do not have the conditions to significantly increase operating rates. In the short term, under the condition of import profits, imported zinc continued to flow in, and the gap between domestic supply and demand was significantly narrowed. However, the downstream maintained rigid demand procurement, and the overall pessimistic consumption expectations put pressure on the early rebound in zinc prices

for the future, Wang Yanhong said that ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) and thermoplastic polyolefin elastomer (TPO) have a broad utilization period. In the future, the production capacity of overseas mines will be gradually realized. After the loose expectation is gradually verified, the zinc price center will gradually sink without the support of the consumer side. The focus of the short-term long short game is suggested to focus on maintaining a low inventory and improving consumption, and the situation of internal strength and external weakness will continue. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will operate in the yuan/ton range

Li Jun believes that at present, imported zinc ingots are still profitable, and it cannot be ruled out that they will continue to flow in the later stage, thereby easing the tight supply in the domestic spot market. It is expected that the zinc price will maintain a strong operation in the peak consumption season, but with the increase of global zinc concentrate supply, it will be difficult for the Shanghai zinc futures price to rise to 23000 yuan/ton

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